The recent conflict between India and Pakistan has taken a new turn, where water is being seen as a strategic weapon. India's unilateral decision to suspend the Indus Water Treaty of 1960 and Pakistan's counteraction by canceling the Simla Agreement have created fresh tensions in South Asian geopolitics. In this context, China’s role has also come under discussion, signaling a new challenge for India.
Background of the Indus Water Treaty and the Current Crisis
The Indus Water Treaty, signed in 1960 between India and Pakistan, is considered a successful example of international river management. According to the treaty, Pakistan was given rights over the waters of the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers, while India was given control over the Beas, Ravi, and Sutlej rivers. However, after the Pahalgam attack in April 2025, India blamed Pakistan and suspended the treaty without providing credible evidence. Pakistan responded by canceling the Simla Agreement. These actions have increased tension between the two countries and raised fears of military conflict.
Risks of Weaponizing Water and China's Possible Role
In a seminar organized by the Pakistan Institute of International Affairs (PIIA), researcher Mohammad Usman stated, “If India blocks water flow to Pakistan, it risks flooding its own higher regions. Additionally, blocking water in the dry season can negatively impact Pakistan’s agriculture, reducing crop yields and threatening food security.”
Usman also said, “When an upstream country suddenly releases water to a downstream country, it can cause massive floods. In the case of India and Pakistan, Pakistan is the downstream country, and India is the upstream country. Similarly, in the case of China and India, China is upstream and India is downstream, especially to the Brahmaputra River. As a result, China may also block water to India, presenting a new strategic challenge for India.”
International Response and Diplomatic Efforts
Following this crisis, a ceasefire between India and Pakistan was established through the intervention of US President Donald Trump. However, a lack of trust in water management and treaty violations may cause further complications in the future. The international community should mediate this crisis and encourage both countries to reach a solution through dialogue.
Conclusion
The water conflict between India and Pakistan is not just a bilateral issue; it concerns the stability and security of the entire South Asian region. The tendency to use water as a strategic weapon could violate international law and human rights. Therefore, both countries should resolve water management issues based on mutual trust and cooperation, and maintain good relations with neighboring countries, including China. The international community should also play a constructive role in solving this crisis to ensure peace and stability in South Asia.